The next three years will be huge for utility renewables in Australia. Given the timeframes for financing, constructing and commissioning new plants, we expect all currently committed capacity to be fully online by the June 2024 quarter.
And that’s a lot of capacity. With 9.4 GW of projects either commissioning, being built or otherwise committed to construction, we expect fully operational wind and solar in the NEM to almost double from today’s level in three years.
Our commissioning forecast is hostage to a whole host of risks, but we expect new volumes hitting the market to average between 500 MW and 1 GW per month for the next two years before slowly tailing off as committed projects reach completion.
Wind projects dominate the volume of new committed project capacity coming online, at approximately double the amount of solar.